As the calendar turns to the final week of July, general managers all across baseball install a few extra phone lines as they seek to improve their teams prior to the July 31st non-waiver trading deadline. The Red Sox have been one of the more active teams in their recent history. Not only do they make deals, but for the most part they are successful.
The additions of Jason Bay and Victor Martinez have fueled late season runs the past two years. However, the story likely won't unfold the same way for Boston this trade deadline. For starters, GM Theo Epstein has had minimal time to even assess his team as injuries have ravaged the ballclub throughout the year. Plus, there are more teams that are seeking an upgrade at the major league level in hopes of winning a divison than there have been in the past. That in turn means there are generally less teams willing to sell off what may prove to be valuable assets.
While all those are valid reasons why the Red Sox won't be as active as they have been in the past, it's not the biggest reason. The simple fact is, while there are less players available, most of them just won't make enough of an impact to truly help the Red Sox to where they want to go.
There's no question the Sox have a definitive need (bullpen help), but there is a legitimate question as to how much a change really will help. Aside from Jonathan Papelbon and Daniel Bard, the relief has been anything but for Boston. One or two moves may not be enough to salvage the 'pen, and it will likely cost the team more than its fair share of prospects.
There's also some legitimate concerns about the teams recent inability to hit. Since the All-Star break they've scored five or more runs just once, and that came in their exta-inning victory over Seattle on Thursday. However, if the trading prospects for relievers are thin, than the market to pick up an impact bat is practically non-existent, especially since the Royals' David DeJesus is out for the season with a thumb injury.
There's no doubt in my mind that the Red Sox will still make some sort of move. No team with that much financial clout sits still at the trade deadline unless said team is definitely out of the playoffs, which the Sox are not. I doubt that the right elements are in place though for the kind of deal Boston is accustomed to.
The wild card in all of this is Theo Epstein's ability to seemingly pull a deal out of nowhere. While Mike Lowell doesn't appear to be wanted by anyone, even his own team and Jacoby Ellsbury isn't on the field but not talking his way out of town, don't underestimate Epstein's willingness to find a fire where there's no smoke. Just when it seems as if the Sox have no wiggle room, he finds some.
While the right pieces aren't there right now, things could change dramatically in the next few days. If the Red Sox want a big boost at the deadline, they're best bet is probably simply to get healthy. The players simply aren't out there that will dramatically shift Boston's fortunes, that is unless Epstein is willing to roll the dice with a top-end prospect or player.
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